Whisper it quietly, but there is a significant shift taking place in the global economic landscape. More specifically, a number of the world’s emerging economies are continuing to grow at an exponential rate, while outperforming traditional powerhouses including the U.S. the UK and Japan. At the head of this list is Brazil, Russia, India and China, who are often referred to as the BRIC block of nations and remain on course to become the dominant economic force by 2050.
In this post, we’ll appraise the likely growth of these nations, while asking why they’re becoming increasingly influential in lucrative markets such as e-commerce.
The Growth Of The BRIC Bloc In Numbers
There’s no doubt that China is established as the dominant BRIC nation, with Goldman Sachs suggesting that this nation’s GDP is likely to move on a par with the U.S. by the year 2027. Beyond this, the collective GDP of the four BRIC nations will continue to grow exponentially over the course of the next 15 years, to the point where it will match today’s leading Western nations by 2032. Ultimately, if China and the other leading economies in the world-class continue to expand at their current rate, it’s anticipated that the BRIC nations will completely over take the G7 group by 2035.
Although this evolution is part of a wider trend that will see emerging economies grow and money increasingly flow away from the U.S. economy, the growth of the BRIC bloc is based primarily on an abundance of natural resources and each members expertise in the supply of manufactured good and low-cost services. By 2050, this will leave the four BRIC nations joined by Mexico and the U.S. in the world’s top six economies, with traditional powerhouses such as the UK falling down into ninth.
And What About The Ecommerce Market?
Given the focus of BRIC nations on manufacturing and supply, it stands to reason that e-commerce should have a huge impact on their future growth. After all, this vast and largely untapped market is extremely accessible and boasts almost no barriers to entry, while BRIC leader China have already established themselves as the dominant e-commerce player in the global marketplace. China is also one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world, with annual online sales in the region of $370 billion.
South American giants Brazil are also making headway in the e-commerce sector, while the nation boasts a strong track record of online sales. Their national online marketplace MercadoLibre had an estimated 174.2 million users as recently as 2016, for example, with this number having more than doubled since 2012 and likely to grow at a similar rate in the near-term.
Russia is also growing at an exponential rate, although more than a third of its e-commerce market is made up of non-Russian vendors. Still, it is considered to be the leader of all emerging economies in the e-commerce space, having driven an estimated €14.85 billion in sales in 2016 and grown by around 20% on the previous years figures.
If such growth rates continue, there will be a strong correlation between the expansion of e-commerce in emerging markets and the forecast increase in GDP for BRIC nations over the course of the next 20 years or more. One thing that’s for sure; however, is that these nations are continuing to grow at the expense of established economies and remain on-track to supersede them by the year 2050.